The doctoral thesis of Tuomo Kuosa M.Soc.Sc. examines the existence and challenges of futures research. The doctoral thesis ‘Towards the Dynamic Paradigm of Futures Research. How to Grasp a Complex Futures Problem with Multiple Phases and Multiple Methods’ was examined on Friday 18 September 2009 in the subject of Economic Sociology at the Turku School of Economics.
In his doctoral thesis, Tuomo Kuosa examines by what tools and methods people have at different times tried to obtain futures-oriented information to support decision-making. The doctoral research also asks what tools, methods and principles we will need in the future.
As the future becomes increasingly complex, we need a completely new way of thinking in order to perceive it. The thesis also examines such matters as the possibilities of computer-based data mining as a futures tool.
Futures-oriented information as part of decision-making
As a solution for the needs of a rapidly changing world, Kuosa offers cumulative research, i.e. research that constantly refines knowledge.
- Cumulative research utilises many different kinds of forecasting methods. The problem under examination is approached through questions and principles that differ clearly from each other.
Cumulative research first studies the systematic nature of the operating environment and one’s own organisation, i.e. what kind of development is characteristic of the system in question. After that, it evaluates other major boundary conditions of change, analyses present models of explanation and solution, forecasts change by observing its signs in the environment, and visualises the boundary conditions for change and possible future development trends.
- It is important that all received information is in the end used as part of strategic decision-making, says Kuosa.
More information:
Tuomo Kuosa, +358 44 036 0688, tuomo.kuosa(a)tse.fi
www.tuomo.tel | www.dynamicfutures.org
Thesis