In the future, vegetarianism may proliferate in the Western world to such an extent that it becomes the norm. Such a change does not need to be a conscious choice for all consumers, but may result from a development in socio-technical structures, for example. This is demonstrated in the doctoral dissertation by Markus Vinnari M.Sc., M.Sc. Techn., 'The Past, Present and Future of Eating Meat in Finland', which he defended on Friday 26 March 2010 at the Turku School of Economics.
In his dissertation, Markus Vinnari studied the future prospects for eating meat. He looked into whether or not vegetarianism may become the social norm in a modern Western country, using Finland as a case. For the purposes of the dissertation, he analysed various statistical data sets and collected material from consumers and experts.
According to materials utilised in the research, the number of Finnish households not consuming meat increased in the late 1970s, but the rate of increase levelled off somewhat after the 1980s. On a national level, however, total meat consumption has continued to grow, although some levelling off is noticeable.
- Nowadays, about 0.5-3 percent of the adult population in Finland are vegetarians, depending on the definition. Establishing the number of vegetarians is a complex question, because the word 'vegetarian' has many different connotations, explains Vinnari.
From historical analysis to forecasting
According to the materials, the current future prospects of people's meat consumption are formed from such factors as health considerations and a view of the superiority of old practices. Some of the respondents do not want to change their quantities of meat consumption at all. If one wants to direct consumption, one could find effective alternatives by choosing different means to influence different consumer groups.
According to Vinnari, the mere evaluation of historical materials is insufficient to evaluate possible future paths.
- The possibilities of the proliferation of vegetarianism are now better than ever. Adopting vegetarianism need not ultimately be a conscious choice by all consumers. The change may occur, for example, through the development of socio-technical structures or an increase in the significance of environmental constraints, says Vinnari.
Three scenarios for meat consumption
At the end of his research, Vinnari outlines three different scenarios for the possible ending of meat consumption in Finland in the next 50 years. The purpose of these scenarios is to open up a complex relationship between different influencing mechanisms, which may control meat consumption and, on the other hand, stimulate discussion about the desirability of the future in question. In all the scenarios, change is a result of several different factors. The study has identified more than 30 factors that may influence a change in meat consumption. The three scenarios presented follow the traditional way of constructing scenarios as there are three ways to reach the future: drifting, planning and by catastrophe. The scenarios can be described in short in the following way.
In the 'From Gluttony to Crash' scenario, cheap meat floods the market and at first its consumption continues to increase as people put on weight. Changes do not occur until, from an environmental perspective, the situation becomes so unpleasant that something has to be done. Technological development has produced meat substitutes for consumers, which make it easier for them to switch from traditional meat products.
In the 'Steady Decline' scenario, changes leading to a decline in meat consumption are very small and partially conscious. One factor in this scenario causing change is the climate change debate, which gets people to change their consumption habits. At the same time, reductions in agricultural subsidies, for example, increase the price of meat, which reduces overall meat consumption. The development of meat substitutes, such as seitan, tofu and cultured meat, ultimately makes the changeover very easy for the last consumers.
In the 'Out of Our Hands' scenario, meat consumption decreases very rapidly, because animal diseases quickly undermine consumer confidence in meat products and meat production. In this scenario, urban cultivation also increases, which shapes people's attitudes to food production.
Further information:
Markus Vinnari
markus.vinnari(a)uef.fi
The doctoral dissertation can be read at http://info.tse.fi/julkaisut/vk/Ae3_2010.pdf